1	The Economy in 2005 and Beyond John Tuccillo www.johntuccillo.com tumler@aol.com
2	An Approach to Forecasting Past precedent Models Driving forces The three laws of forecasting
3	Four Factors to Watch The price of Oil The dual deficits The rise of inflation Jobs and job quality
4	The Price of Oil The rosy scenario Mild winter Lower consumption Middle East stability The bleak scenario Chinese expansion grows The Middle East blows up The implications
5	The Dual Deficits Trade and Federal Budget red ink Increased indebtedness Weakened world position Higher interest rates Implications
6	The Rise of Inflation Commodity price increases Labor market tightness Weaker dollar Implications
7	Jobs and Job Quality The size and nature of employment growth Falling competitiveness Declining standard of living Implications
8	The Forecast GDP growth: 2-2.5 percent Employment growth: 1.5 million Mortgage interest rates (December): 7.25 percent Inflation: 3.5 percent
9	The Real Estate Forecast Existing home sales: 5.9 million Housing starts: 1.4 million Commercial real estate: Rents, vacancies level Premium for Class A buildings
10	The Real Estate Business The industry is consolidating Major realty firms and builders are repositioning to new profit centers. Demise of marginal agents. The Internet has erased boundaries between service businesses;banks, real estate agents, WEB based discounters are new competition.
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12	Controlling The Lead
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14	Adapting to the New Market: Essential Competencies Building and maintaining a brand Being everywhere Counseling, negotiating and managing Marketing Acquiring, managing and using information Thinking strategically