| The National Economic and Real Estate Forecast | ||||||||||||||
| Annual | History | Forecast | Annual | |||||||||||
| Indicator | 2003 | 2004 | 2004Q1 | 2004Q2 | 2004Q3 | 2004Q4 | 2005Q1 | 2005Q2 | 2005Q3 | 2005Q4 | 2005 | |||
| Real GDP (% change,saar) | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |||
| Employment (% change in | ||||||||||||||
| nonfarm payrolls) | -0.30 | 1.14 | 0.34 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 1.64 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 1.96 | |||
| CPI (% change*) | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | |||
| Consumer Confidence Index | 77 | 96 | 92 | 94 | 100 | 96 | 98 | 100 | 98 | 97 | 98.3 | |||
| 30-Year Mortgage (%) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 6.5 | |||
| 1-Year ARM (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | |||
| Home Resales (000s,saar) | 6,183 | 6,784 | 6,203 | 6,787 | 6,678 | 6,995 | 6,400 | 6,200 | 6,000 | 5,900 | 6,125 | |||
| % change* | 9.8 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 16.5 | -1.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | -8.6 | -10.2 | -15.7 | -9.7 | |||
| New Home Sales (000s,saar) | 1,089 | 1,178 | 1,197 | 1,206 | 1,155 | 1,153 | 1,100 | 1,150 | 1,000 | 950 | 1,050 | |||
| % change* | 11.6 | 8.2 | 22.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 3.4 | -8.1 | -4.6 | -13.4 | -17.6 | -10.9 | |||
| Med. Resale Price | $169,500 | $185,200 | $170,800 | $183,500 | $189,300 | $189,300 | $195,000 | $199,000 | $198,000 | $197,000 | $197,250 | |||
| % change* | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 6.5 | |||
| Avg. Resale Price | $215,000 | $236,600 | $219,000 | $237,000 | $240,300 | $241,700 | 244,500 | 263,000 | 262,500 | 250,000 | $255,000 | |||
| % change* | 7.9 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 7.8 | |||
| Med. New Home Price | $195,000 | $219,600 | $212,900 | $216,600 | $214,000 | $226,500 | $226,000 | $243,000 | $240,000 | $235,000 | $236,000 | |||
| % change* | 4.0 | 12.6 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 19.3 | 6.2 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 7.5 | |||
| Avg. New Home Price | $246,300 | $273,500 | $262,400 | $264,300 | $273,500 | $284,300 | $289,000 | $298,500 | $298,000 | $297,000 | $295,625 | |||
| % change* | 8.5 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 10.6 | 15.6 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | |||
| Housing Starts (000s,saar) | 1,853 | 1,952 | 1,943 | 1,920 | 1,969 | 1,959 | 1,960 | 1,950 | 1,850 | 1,800 | 1,890 | |||
| % change* | 8.4 | 5.3 | 11.2 | 10 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -6.0 | -8.1 | 2.0 | |||
| *Comparison with same period in previous year. Real GDP, home sales/starts are at seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar). | ||||||||||||||
| Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Conference Board; Freddie Mac; | ||||||||||||||
| Housing indicators: National Association of Realtors; Census Bureau. | ||||||||||||||