| 2008 Forecast |
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| John
Tuccillo |
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| The National
Economic and Real Estate Forecast |
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History |
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Forecast |
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| Indicator |
2005 |
2006 |
2006Q4 |
2007Q1 |
2007Q2 |
2007Q3 |
2007Q4 |
2008Q1 |
2008Q2 |
2008Q3 |
2008Q4 |
2007 |
2008 |
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| Real GDP (% change,saar) |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
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| Employment (% change in |
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nonfarm payrolls) |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.00 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
0.90 |
0.50 |
1.15 |
0.80 |
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| CPI (% change*) |
3.4 |
3.2 |
-2.1 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
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| Consumer Confidence Index |
100 |
105 |
107 |
110 |
107 |
106 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
101 |
100 |
106 |
100 |
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| 30-Year Mortgage (%) |
5.9 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
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| 1-Year ARM (%) |
4.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
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| Home Resales (000s,saar) |
7,076 |
6,478 |
6,263 |
6,423 |
5,917 |
5,423 |
4,900 |
4,900 |
4,950 |
5,000 |
5,100 |
5,666 |
4,988 |
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| % change* |
4.4 |
-8.5 |
-10.1 |
-6.4 |
-10.7 |
-13.7 |
-21.8 |
-23.7 |
-16.3 |
-7.8 |
4.1 |
-12.5 |
-12.0 |
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| New Home Sales (000s,saar) |
1,283 |
1,051 |
864 |
853 |
855 |
732 |
670 |
690 |
690 |
695 |
695 |
778 |
693 |
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| %
change* |
6.6 |
-18.1 |
-22.0 |
-25.3 |
-21.7 |
-23.6 |
-22.5 |
-19.1 |
-19.3 |
-5.1 |
3.7 |
-26.0 |
-10.9 |
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| Med. Resale Price |
$219,600 |
$221,900 |
$219,300 |
$214,300 |
$224,100 |
$222,300 |
$210,000 |
$205,000 |
$210,000 |
$210,000 |
$220,000 |
$217,843 |
$211,328 |
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| % change* |
12.4 |
1.0 |
-2.7 |
-2.0 |
-1.1 |
-1.2 |
-4.2 |
-4.3 |
-6.3 |
-5.5 |
4.8 |
-0.80 |
-3.0 |
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| Avg. Resale Price |
$266,600 |
$268,200 |
$265,900 |
$261,200 |
$271,900 |
$268,500 |
$240,000 |
240,000 |
250,000 |
255,000 |
260,000 |
$261,157 |
$251,353 |
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| % change* |
9.1 |
0.6 |
-1.8 |
-1.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-9.7 |
-8.1 |
-8.1 |
-5.0 |
8.3 |
-2.0 |
-3.8 |
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| Med. New Home Price |
$240,900 |
$246,500 |
$245,400 |
$257,400 |
$242,200 |
$241,700 |
$225,000 |
$220,000 |
$230,000 |
$240,000 |
$230,000 |
$242,546 |
$230,018 |
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| % change* |
9 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
3.9 |
-1.7 |
2.6 |
-8.3 |
-14.5 |
-5.0 |
-0.7 |
2.2 |
0.7 |
-5.2 |
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| Avg. New Home Price |
$297,000 |
$305,900 |
$299,600 |
$322,100 |
$310,100 |
$298,500 |
$280,000 |
$270,000 |
$280,000 |
$300,000 |
$290,000 |
$304,176 |
$285,036 |
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| % change* |
8.2 |
3.0 |
1.8 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
-6.5 |
-16.2 |
-9.7 |
0.5 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
-6.3 |
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| Housing Starts (000s,saar) |
2,068 |
1,804 |
1,555 |
1,460 |
1,464 |
1,304 |
1,000 |
980 |
950 |
930 |
1,000 |
1,307 |
965 |
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| % change* |
5.7 |
-12.8 |
-24.8 |
-31.4 |
-21.3 |
-23.5 |
-35.7 |
-32.9 |
-35.1 |
-28.7 |
0.0 |
-36.8 |
-26.2 |
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| *Comparison
with same period in previous year. Real GDP,home sales/starts are at
seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar). |
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| Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of
Labor Statistics; Conference Board; Freddie Mac; |
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| Housing indicators:
National Association of Realtors; Census Bureau. |
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