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The National Economic and Real Estate Forecast |
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History |
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Forecast |
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| Indicator |
2006 |
2007 |
2007Q4 |
2008Q1 |
2008Q2 |
2008Q3 |
2008Q4 |
2009Q1 |
2009Q2 |
2009Q3 |
2009Q4 |
2008 |
2009 |
| Real GDP (% change,saar) |
3.1 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
0.9 |
2.8 |
-0.5 |
-6.0 |
-5.0 |
-4.0 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.7 |
-2.0 |
| Employment (% change in |
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| nonfarm payrolls) |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
-0.7 |
-2.0 |
-2.5 |
-2.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
| CPI (% change*) |
3.2 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
-3.0 |
-1.0 |
-0.5 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
0.6 |
| Consumer Confidence Index |
105 |
103 |
91 |
77 |
57 |
57 |
58 |
60 |
60 |
65 |
70 |
62 |
64 |
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| 30-Year Mortgage (%) |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.2 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
| 1-Year ARM (%) |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
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| Home Resales (000s,saar) |
6,478 |
5,652 |
4,997 |
4,953 |
4,910 |
5,023 |
4,900 |
4,950 |
5,000 |
5,100 |
5,000 |
4,947 |
5,013 |
| % change* |
-8.5 |
-12.8 |
-20.2 |
-22.9 |
-17.0 |
-7.4 |
-1.9 |
-0.1 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
-12.5 |
1.3 |
| New Home Sales (000s,saar) |
1,051 |
776 |
651 |
561 |
519 |
472 |
430 |
420 |
420 |
440 |
450 |
496 |
433 |
| % change* |
-18.1 |
-26.3 |
-24.7 |
-34.2 |
-39.3 |
-35.5 |
-33.9 |
-25.1 |
-19.1 |
-6.8 |
4.7 |
-36.1 |
-12.7 |
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| Med. Resale Price |
$221,900 |
$218,900 |
$207,500 |
$198,500 |
$208,400 |
$202,100 |
$190,000 |
$185,000 |
$190,000 |
$200,000 |
$195,000 |
$199,766 |
$192,556 |
| % change* |
1.0 |
-1.4 |
-5.4 |
-7.4 |
-7.0 |
-9.1 |
-8.4 |
-6.8 |
-8.8 |
-1.0 |
2.6 |
-8.74 |
-3.6 |
| Avg. Resale Price |
$268,200 |
$266,000 |
$255,000 |
$245,000 |
$252,800 |
$245,000 |
$224,800 |
$220,000 |
$225,000 |
$240,000 |
$235,000 |
$241,933 |
$230,075 |
| % change* |
0.6 |
-0.8 |
-4.1 |
-6.2 |
-7.0 |
-8.8 |
-11.8 |
-10.2 |
-11.0 |
-2.0 |
4.5 |
-9.0 |
-4.9 |
| Med. New Home Price |
$246,500 |
$247,200 |
$238,400 |
$233,900 |
$235,300 |
$226,600 |
$220,000 |
$210,000 |
$220,000 |
$225,000 |
$220,000 |
$229,513 |
$218,844 |
| % change* |
2.3 |
0.3 |
-2.9 |
-9.1 |
-2.8 |
-6.2 |
-7.7 |
-10.2 |
-6.5 |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
-7.2 |
-4.6 |
| Avg. New Home Price |
$305,900 |
$313,600 |
$305,800 |
$290,400 |
$304,200 |
$283,400 |
$280,000 |
$275,000 |
$280,000 |
$285,000 |
$280,000 |
$290,090 |
$280,058 |
| % change* |
3 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
-9.8 |
-1.9 |
-5.9 |
-8.4 |
-5.3 |
-8.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-7.5 |
-3.5 |
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| Housing Starts (000s,saar) |
1,804 |
1,355 |
1,151 |
1,053 |
1,025 |
879 |
780 |
770 |
770 |
800 |
850 |
934 |
798 |
| % change* |
-12.8 |
-24.8 |
-26.0 |
-27.9 |
-30.0 |
-32.6 |
-32.2 |
-26.9 |
-24.9 |
-9.0 |
9.0 |
-31.1 |
-14.6 |
| *Comparison with same period in previous
year. Real GDP,home sales/starts are at seasonally adjusted annual rates
(saar). |
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| Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Conference Board; Freddie Mac; |
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| Housing indicators:
National Association of Realtors; Census Bureau. |
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