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John Tuccillo is the author of "The Eight New Rules of Real
Estate," a best seller that has been instrumental in shaping
the thinking of real estate industry leaders approaching the challenge
of changing their business models. His recent book, "New Business
Models for the New Economy," was published in November, 2001.
Columns and Articles by John Tuccillo:
Eating Our Seed Corn
by John Tuccillo, PhD
November, 2005
Consider the things that concern us as a nation, as represented in the news media:
- Who “outed” CIA agent Valerie Plame, was there a crime committed and – if so — who will be tried?
- Has the earth evolved, or was it created by some sort of superior intelligence?
- Where lies the major blame for bungling the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina?
- Which TV shows will be cancelled this winter?
- Which teams will play in the Super Bowl?
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It’s An Ill Wind
by John Tuccillo, PhD
September, 2005
The Tragedy of Hurricane Katrina is still with us and is likely to be for a while. The physical devastation and human suffering that the storm caused has eclipsed the Galveston flood of 1900 and the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. It is, simply, the worst natural disaster to affect the United States ever. New Orleans, that great city, has ceased to be what it was, and it’s unclear what it will be in the future. The adjoining gulf coast was equally as devastated.
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The Economy at Midyear: How the Price of Oil Tells Everything There is to Know about the American Economy
by John Tuccillo, PhD
July, 2005
There’s a terrific new book out, Freaknomics, that tells you all you need to know (as if you wanted to) about how economists think. I mention it here because the authors take the approach of relating seemingly unrelated phenomena to answer interesting and off-beat questions. Inspired by this, I’d like to take a look at the economy in midyear using the concept that the price of oil encapsulates all that’s encouraging and troubling about the American economy.
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Ten Trends That Are Shaping the Real Estate Business: Part II
by John Tuccillo, PhD
March, 2005
As you may recall from my last column, I believe there are ten trends that are currently shaping the future of the real estate business. The first five—described in that column—are:
- There are fewer firms
- Commissions are falling
- Falling standards
- Online or out to lunch
- New business models.
This month, we finish the list.
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We Are the World—Darn It!
by John Tuccillo, PhD
March, 2005
The fact is that the dollar has fallen by over thirty percent against the Euro is of interest to more people than just those traveling to Europe this year. The weaker dollar and the reasons for it are crucial to the fortunes of the entire U.S. economy. In brief, the weaker dollar will push up interest rates, increase inflation and reduce economic growth.
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Ten Trends That Are Shaping the Real Estate Business: Part I
by John Tuccillo, PhD
February, 2005
I’ve written for years about the future of real estate and continually look for
new ideas that will determine how the business is done as we go forward. The
pace is fast for a variety of reasons, but most of all because real estate is an
information business and the way we convey and receive information is
continually being remolded by technology and new business practices. In this
column and in the next, I describe what I see to be the ten trends that will
shape real estate in the next five years.
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If Wishing Could Make It So
by John Tuccillo, PhD
January, 2005
Every pundit, politician and economist has spoken the same litany for the past two years: this economy will grow strongly, employment will be up and prosperity restored by 2005. They look to the declining price of energy, rising corporate profits, expansion plans by American business and the continued stimulus of tax cuts to pull the economy out of the doldrums.
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The Economy in 2005: Five Things to Watch
by John Tuccillo, PhD
December, 2004
The vast majority of economic forecasters see 2005 as a good year, with strong growth and growing employment. They base these forecasts on the expectation that oil prices will fall, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates slowly and that employers will be more confident about the future. I agree that 2005 will probably see more economic growth, but I’m more pessimistic than most about the rate of economic expansion.
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The Driving Forces
by John Tuccillo, PhD
November, 2004
The good news is that we had a presidential election that actually ended on Election Day (or reasonable facsimile thereof). The bad news is that “Landslide W” is claiming a mandate for a variety of social and economic programs. I’m not sure if November 2 made any difference for the economy in the short run, but it did put into motion some forces that will shape this economy over the next decade or two.
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Slip Slidin’ Away
by John Tuccillo, PhD
September, 2004
The recovery, which had looked so bright a year ago, is now lapsing into mediocrity at best, and vanishing at worst. The accumulated statistics in the summer of ’04 suggest that the immediate bump the economy received from the tax cuts of 2003 has run its course and that the cuts have no legs. This is exemplified most dramatically by the mere 32, 000 net new jobs created in July, a month in which most observers predicted a gain of about 200,000.
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Election Year Economics
by John Tuccillo, PhD
July, 2004
Regardless of almost anything else that’s happening, economic issues tend to dominate our presidential elections. If the electorate feels that the economy is healthy and if the voters feel that they personally are prospering, then the incumbent will win (see Johnson ’64, Nixon’72, Reagan ’84 and Clinton ’96); if the electorate feel that the economy is going south, then the incumbent will lose (see Carter ’80, Nixon ’60, Bush ’92 and, in the most extreme case, Hoover ’32). So, heading into the fall of 2004, it’s probably wise to take a look at whether economic issues will dominate this election, which ones they are and the forecast for the economy over the next four quarters.
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